Manuka Honey Market Forecast Scenarios 2026-2034

The New Zealand apiculture sector is at a potential turning point. Having navigated years of supply volatility, falling returns, and industry consolidation, industry leaders are again evaluating what it will take to achieve sustainable long-term growth.

While the broader New Zealand apiculture sector previously established an ambition to reach $1 billion in total export value by 2030, achieving this target rests almost entirely on Manuka honey, which consistently accounts for over 90% of New Zealand's total honey export revenue. This target aligns with the current government objective to double total food and fibre export values by 2034, requiring a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% to 11% across primary sectors. In response, Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) led efforts are underway to establish an alliance of honey industry participants, capable of executing joint strategic initiatives.

Note: Methodology & Data Scope

The historical metrics and scenario projections detailed in this analysis encompass all New Zealand honey exports. Because Manuka honey represents more than 90% of total export value, these aggregated national figures serve as an accurate proxy for the Manuka sector's specific underlying dynamics.

Boom and Bust Cycle

To plan for future growth, the sector must first account for the structural factors that drove recent value destruction:

• Uncoordinated Expansion: Driven by record high prices, registered hive numbers expanded rapidly to peak at 918,000 in 2019.

• Severe Oversupply: Production in 2020 generated the equivalent of $940 million in honey value, despite global export demand reaching only $425 million at the time.

• Price Erosion: This oversupply drove a 14% drop in average export pricing. The widespread availability of bulk honey below cost incentivised low-margin channels and forced price reductions across premium MGO grades. Consequently, retail price expectations were altered, leaving end consumers accustomed to purchasing high-grade honey at historically low price points.

• Contraction: A multi-year correction reduced hive numbers to an estimated 475,000, finally bringing annual harvest yields into balance with global demand.

While bulk honey prices have recently begun lifting for beekeepers, brands now face resistance from overseas retailers when attempting to raise prices to pass on these additional costs and maintain margins. Crucially, as bulk prices recover, some beekeepers have already signalled intentions to increase hive numbers again, risking a repeat of the oversupply cycle.

Strategic Pathways to 2034

To assess how the sector might achieve its export ambitions, three distinct forward-looking scenarios model potential pathways out to 2034. As Manuka honey is unique to New Zealand and the majority is exported, the level of industry collaboration is a key driver to maximising value. Note that historically the industry has voted against efforts to establish a single unified industry body and to establish compulsory commodity levies – common amongst many other agriculture products.

Scenario Breakdown

• Scenario 1: Status Quo. Under current policy settings, there is no joint industry body or shared planning. Beekeepers repeatedly increase hive numbers ahead of demand, suppressing prices. Hives rise to 640,000. Growth is driven primarily by volume at approximately 2% annually, while price increases stall below inflation at roughly 1% annually. Under this scenario, exports only reach $595 million by 2034 (achieving just a 3.8% CAGR) and the industry continues to carry excess stock.

• Scenario 2: Industry Collaboration. This pathway involves a unified body operating under a commodity levy and/or the HEA, allowing for data transparency and coordinated supply planning. Bulk exports are restricted to capture more value in New Zealand, while higher quality and labelling standards are strictly enforced. Hives are managed more steadily to 613,000. This scenario drives 3% to 4% annual volume growth and 4% annual price growth, pushing exports to $782 million by 2034 (a 7.0% CAGR). However, excess stock remains.

• Scenario 3: Industry Consolidation. This ambitious model reflects a Zespri-style consolidation featuring joint R&D, joint marketing investments, and tightly controlled production. Hive numbers rise carefully to 585,000. From 2030 onwards, the benefits of consolidation materialize as a scarcity mindset is re-established with retailers and end consumers. By recovering inflation-adjusted pricing back to the 2019 peak, this scenario yields deliberate 10% annual price increases alongside 5% volume growth. This is the only scenario where the target stock cover of 1.5 to 2.0 years is achieved. Ultimately, exports reach $1,124 million by 2034 (an 11.4% CAGR). Note 2011 to 2020 CAGR was 17.2%.

Scenario Driver Details

• Hive numbers are forecast to increase from ~475k currently to 640k, 613k, and 585k respectively under Scenarios 1 to 3

• Under the Status Quo Scenario, beekeepers respond to a lift in pricing by ramping up hives ahead of demand but not to the same extent as the run up to 2019

• Under Scenarios 2 and 3, better coordination between supply and demand would result in a steadier and more controlled increase in hives tied to demand

• Continual oversupply pressure and price fighting is expected to supress prices under the Status Quo Scenario (+1% pa)

• Better supply control through Industry Collaboration or Consolidation could result in coordinated (+4% pa) or deliberate (+10% pa) price increases, with Scenario 3 lifting pricing back to its 2019 peak (inflation adjusted)

• Scenarios for export volumes diverge from 2030 as benefits from Industry Collaboration or Consolidation come to fruition, including reestablishment of a scarcity mindset with retailers and end consumers.

Re-evaluating Inventory: Stockpile vs. Natural Reserve

A key narrative in the industry when entering the correction period from 2020 was that there is a national stockpile of honey built up, needing to be cleared. Despite the continual decline in hive numbers from 2019 to today, through the period from 2021 to 2025 we estimate the industry was still in a state of excess supply. Recent market commentary that “the sheds are empty” is difficult to validate based on currently available data (production, less exports, less domestic consumption).

We estimate that only now supply and demand are roughly in balance, and that hive numbers should be increased slowly, below the rate of demand growth, so that the total honey in domestic storage (maturing + matured) can be driven down to an appropriate level of cover.

Given the need to mature harvested honey for 12-24 months depending on grade, and have sufficient ready stock to meet customer demand through to the next harvest, it is reasonable that there should be a Natural Stock Reserve of honey that builds over time as the industry grows. A key question is what is the appropriate national level for this reserve?

We estimate the current Natural Stock Reserve at 58kT, equivalent to 3.7 years of demand cover (exports + domestic). A more appropriate reserve level may be 1.5 to 2.0 years cover. Under Scenario 3 this target cover level is reached by 2034, while other scenarios continue to carry excess stock

Upside and Downside Risks

Significant variations to the forecast scenarios are possible, with some of the key upside and downside risks outlined below.

Upside Risks

• Reduction or elimination of tariffs for the US market from their current 12.5% level

• Successful development of the Indian market, supported by the NZ India Free Trade Agreement that reduces tariffs from 66% to 16.5% over a period of 5 years (subject to minimum import price guidelines of US$30/kg)

• Geographic Indicator (GI) protection achieved for Manuka honey

• Government intervention to establish a single joint industry body, funded with compulsory commodity levies

• Breakthrough innovation that shifts volume from honey in a jar to higher value uses such as supplements, skincare, and medical products

• Another global pandemic event that lifts consumer demand for immunity boosting products

    

Downside Risks

• Global recession leading to a reduction in discretionary spending and a shift to lower priced natural health products

• Shift from retail to bulk honey exports for leading markets such as the US. The German market serves as an example of how a shift to bulk honey exports can result in value loss. Over the past four years, exports have transitioned from predominantly retail-packaged product to predominantly bulk shipments. Over the same period, the average export price has fallen 41%, from $78.7/kg to $46.1/kg

Conclusion

The market correction of recent years has restored supply and demand back to near balance. However, relying on uncoordinated individual decisions risks reopening the boom-and-bust cycle. In our view, the industry is unlikely to reach its $1 billion export ambition without significantly better coordination in supply planning, whether through increased data transparency, industry levies, or formal consolidation, aligning hive placement directly with verified global market demand.