NZ Pet Food: Where the Market is Heading

The NZPFA Conference 2026 pointed to a sector with real growth potential, but also more pressure in the system. New Zealand pet food exports currently sit at around NZ$290m, and if the sector were to keep pace with the government’s broader export ambition, that would imply a path to roughly NZ$580m by 2034 (8% CAGR).

1. Export ambition is rising

The export ambition is clear. New Zealand wants materially more value from food and fibre exports over the next decade, and pet food sits within that broader push. For exporters, that lifts the bar on market access, production resilience, and execution.

Growth is likely to favour businesses that can secure access, protect supply, and stay relevant in premium and functional segments rather than simply add more volume.

2. Supply pressure is not going away

Premium pet food remains closely tied to the availability and cost of high-quality animal proteins. As supply pressure remains tight, exporters need to think carefully about procurement resilience, pricing discipline, and how much input volatility they can absorb without weakening either proposition or profitability.

• NZ breeding ewe numbers are down 2.9% leading to fewer lambs coming through over time

• Lamb crop is down by ~1.0 million versus the previous season

• Prime lamb prices at roughly NZ$11/kg in February 2026, up from around NZ$8/kg in 2024

3. HPAI is now part of the operating environment

Highly Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) is no longer being treated as a one-off event. The industry is now planning around HPAI H5N1 using a ‘One Health’ approach, with a longer-run mindset of how to manage and operate through it. At the same time, GACC has issued updated import quarantine and sanitary requirements for NZ pet food, reinforcing that regulatory readiness remains central to export execution.

4. The opportunity is there, but it is selective

The opportunity map is becoming easier to read. The US overtook China as New Zealand’s largest pet food export market in 2024, while India has become more relevant following the conclusion of the NZ-India FTA, which is expected to deliver around a 22% tariff reduction on pet food once in force. Another demand signal worth watching is the broader trend of rising global cat ownership, which continues to support category growth in cat food.

Conclusion

The NZ Pet Food sector still has room to grow, but the margin for error is narrowing. The winners are likely to be those that can balance export ambition with resilient supply, regulatory readiness, and a clear view of where they can compete best.